Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts

Sunday, 3 March 2013

Baffling Budget


At the end of the day,people at large were relieved that at least current budget didn't make their life any worse if not better.

 “Much ado about nothing”. This is what Union Budget 2013 was all about. Budget trouble might have passed for PC but it has gone to an extreme level for the people of the country. Budget completely disregarded what an aam aadami expected from it. No matter what happens with fiscal deficit or GDP, rising cost of living, something which common men are most concerned with, certainly not going to recede.  FM in no ways makes it any easy for the people putting up with plummeting inflation against their steady income. Following are the issues which needed an immediate consideration on the part of him. Some of them did receive his attention yet core problems related to those were completely left unaddressed.

Real Estate:

With the intent of providing affordable housing, FM proposed a 2.5 lakh deduction on the total taxable income on home loans less than 25 lakh. As if he doesn’t know that finding a home on that price in itself is a herculean task in Indian cities. Apart from this, first time home buyers can now get up to rs. 5.5 lakh of income exempted from tax. Again the point is will they even get a low cost home given the present scenario of skyrocketing property prices.

Indian realty sector is faced with multi faceted regulatory challenge. On one hand the sector is tainted with the circulation of black money on the other genuine buyers are bereft with affordable housing. Nexus between people sitting on wads of cash and avaricious dealers has made it a nightmare for a middle class house hunter to even dream of a dream house.

FM would have done well had he announced for a Real Estate National Regulator, as earlier stated, who could maintain transparency and provide real picture of demand and supply in the realty market. FM must be aware of the fact that it is affordable abode not some scant relief on home-loan interest payments what a middle income earner expects for. 

Savings against inflation:

Acknowledging the people’s lure for gold and decreasing rate of savings in financial instruments, FM has proposed for tax free bonds in Infrastructure sector and also increased the gross income level to 12 lakh from earlier 10 lakh for investing in Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme (RGESS). However, it is dubious whether these meager steps towards fighting gold lure will be of any avail.

FM has also proposed the idea of launching Inflation Indexed Bonds with the consultation of RBI in order to lessen the gold demand. IIBs are those bonds overall return on which is adjusted with increasing inflation. Given that India has several inflation measuring indices, ranging from Wholesale to retail Inflation, it is still not clear which one would be used for pegging return on IIB. Whatever be the index parameter IIBs can never yield the same benefit as gold does. It would have been better had he proposed to instead launch gold index bonds, returns on which could be adjusted with floating gold prices. IIBs including other proposed savings alternatives will certainly fail to catch people’s attention against their penchant for gold.

Urbanization:

India is fast urbanizing. Its urban population would grow from 340 million in 2008 to 590 million by 2030 (according to a 2010 Mc Kinsey & Company report.) It is unfortunate that an efficient FM like Chidambaram failed to provide a farsighted vision to make Indian cities accommodate this huge influx of population. Apart from doubling the fund allocation to Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) -- the UPA government's flagship urban modernization program, there were no critical steps towards making India urbanized in planned manner, a much-needed effort on the part of Govt. in the present time.

Tax reforms:
Keeping in mind the next year general election, FM left the personal income tax slabs unchanged and apart from this he has given 2000 rs tax credit to people earning between 2-5 lakh. However, he levied 10% surcharge on people earning more than 1 cr who are just 42800 in number. It is beyond understanding how the surcharge on this meager number of riches will generate enough revenue to swell Govt. exchequer.

It is time that major tax reforms are incorporated in India. Current range of taxation was last revised more than a decade ago in 1997 when people earning close to fifteen lakh used to be considered among top slot of income holders. Now annual income of a good chunk of Indian population has gone up to 40-50 lacs. It is irrational that people earning 15 lakh and someone who earns just double of that is taxed at the same rate. FM should have dared to make changes in the marginal tax rates for much needed tax reforms.

Conclusion:

All in all Union Budget 2013-14 was a huge disappointment. It was a formality, an attempt on the part of FM to play the game safe with one eye on voter and other on foreign investors and rating agencies. This budget had nothing to offer for which FM had to wait for this auspicious annual economic event. At the end of the day, despite huge expectations, people at large were relieved that at least it didn’t make their life any worse if not better.


  




Saturday, 15 September 2012

Savings – Bigad gai aadat !!


Thrift conscious Indians are fast becoming spendthrift and vague saver. Robust savings, an internationally acclaimed Indian phenomenon is taking a disturbing trend of slide owing to the uncertain and suspicious economic ambience around. It is just not that Gross domestic savings as the ratio of GDP is declining but composition of Indian savings has also become somewhat alarming. Financial savings instruments are losing their sheen   while non-liquid assets like gold, land or home are catching up quickly. This trend is not at all favorable for the growth of Indian economy as it reduces the stock of savings available for development expenditure.
Indian savings are registering a consistent decline since last few years.  As per the Economic Survey of 2011-12 the gross domestic savings have declined from 33.8 per cent of GDP in 2009-10 to 32.8 per cent in 2010-11. This decline is accounted for by a reduction in household savings in financial assets.  It is clearly evident that households have been putting less money in financial savings. Two more recent reports on the macro economy have drawn attention to this development, which has deep implications for the economy. The Economic Outlook, of the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister (PMEAC), headed by C. Rangarajan, and the Reserve Bank of India’s  Annual Report (2011-12).  According to the Economic Outlook, gross financial savings which were at 15.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007-08, fell to 13.6 per cent in 2010-11, and could have possibly fallen to below 12 per cent in the next year (2011-12). The RBI’s estimate is even less upbeat: household financial savings fell to 7.8 per cent (of GDP) in 2011-12, the lowest since 1989-90. During the preceding three years, it averaged 11 per cent.
Indian’s lure for gold not a new phenomenon but recent development is a bit more serious. Indian households have withdrawn from financial savings to put more money into gold. Indian investors are now more aware about the investment potential of gold. Even ordinary investors buy gold, hoping it would protect them from inflation. Gold investment is ranging from physical gold to exchange traded gold funds. Spurt in gold import is clearly a confirmation of the investment led gold buying. Real estate is the next asset class catching up to investor fancy. With rising income levels and bank credit support, real estate has become a high profile destination of Indian household savings. Gold and property savings are not available for economy as both are non-liquid assets. The non-transparent market of these assets also results in a huge tax loss to the govt
Rising inflation pinches from all the directions. Not only does it reduces the consumption on account of low income but also increases the expenditure. Consequently very less amount remains for savings. Inflation is one of the major factors behind a mass disenchantment from financial savings. Inflation is robbing return on savings while interest rate on bank deposits no way a cushion for common investor. Recent spate of reduction on saving banks interest rate has resulted in an all-time low growth in bank deposits. Present tax policies on insurance and MFs are also a dampener to the investment spirit.
Household savings are major source of investment for the nation. Reduction in common man’s thrift is a loss to economy as it forces govt to borrow to meet investment needs. That results in higher deficits.  It is very important to bring Indian savers back to the financial savings as the tendency to invest in non-liquid asset will surely fabricate grave repercussions in near future.